NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:NFL MVP rankings: Where does Patrick Mahomes stack up after OT win vs. Bucs?

You can NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centereither be afraid to lose, or afraid to win games in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles may have been the latter, failing to go for the two-point conversion in the final seconds of regulation against Patrick Mahomes, coach Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.

Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield reacted promptly, looking up at the sky in disbelief after Mahomes and the Chiefs won the overtime coin toss, before leading the game-winning touchdown drive to seal the 30-24 win without Tampa Bay’s offense seeing the field again.

"We wanted to get into overtime with the wet conditions on the field, we thought we had to go into overtime instead of going for two," Bowles said after the game.

The same wet conditions Tampa Bay scored a touchdown on before kicking the extra point to tie the game?

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Bowles’ decision to force overtime cost the Bucs a chance at an upset win over the two-time defending Super Bowl champions. Instead, Mahomes and the Chiefs remain undefeated to boost his case for 2024-2025 NFL MVP.

But where does Mahomes stack up in the USA TODAY Sports’ NFL MVP rankings after Week 9?

5. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels, stock down

Maybe, we were a bit overzealous placing Daniels No. 1 last week after his Hail Mary touchdown pass. Or maybe, the game-winning play in Week 8 was so electric, it made Daniels’ performance in Week 9 feel ho-hum.

Daniels was 15 of 22 for 209 yards with two touchdown passes to Terry McLaurin, and led another touchdown drive in a 27-22 win to sweep the New York Giants on Sunday. Washington is 7-2 for the first time since 1996, and atop the NFC East.

Daniels has the third-best QBR in the NFL, and the fifth-best passer rating. He is undoubtedly the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Washington has 27 touchdowns (sixth in NFL), and lead the league with 15 rushing touchdowns.

But Daniels’ nine touchdown passes this season doesn’t quite stack up with the rest of the MVP competition – causing him to tumble to No. 5 on our list.

4. Bills QB Josh Allen, stock up

Allen moves up a spot in our MVP rankings after throwing three touchdowns in the second half, and leading the game-winning field-goal drive to beat the Dolphins last week.

It was a comeback victory for the Bills, who trailed 10-6 at halftime, and may have already locked up the AFC East in Week 9. That’s worthy praise for his MVP stock.

Allen is tied for fourth with 17 touchdown passes, has the fourth-best QBR and the sixth-best QB rating this season. He also threw just his second interception of the season last week.

Allen and the Bills are tied for third with 31 touchdowns, continuing to beat up on teams worse than them this season.

3. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, stock up

Mahomes rises a spot in our MVP rankings after throwing two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter, and fueling the game-winning touchdown drive in overtime to help the Chiefs overcome a 17-10 deficit and remain undefeated.

Mahomes’ stats keep him out of the top spot after Week 9: He’s sixth with 11 touchdown passes, sixth with a 69.9 completion percentage, and has the sixth-best QBR (67.6). His 242.8 yards per game are 10^th, while his 1,942 passing yards rank 14^th.

Another positive, Mahomes no longer leads the NFL in interceptions. He remains with nine after Week 9, but Jordan Love and Geno Smith have 10 each.

Still, Mahomes leading the only undefeated team in the NFL continues to boost his push for his third MVP.

2. Lions QB Jared Goff, stock even

Goff remains in the No. 2 spot for the third consecutive week after another efficient performance: He completed his first 11 passes, and finished 18 of 22 for 145 yards and a touchdown in a 24-14 win over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.

Boosting Goff’s MVP case is this stat: He has completed 82.8% of his passes with a 140.1 passer rating in his last six games – the best marks over any six-game stretch in NFL history. He’s also added 13 touchdown passes with just one interception during the 6-0 stretch for Detroit.

It’s clear Detroit is the best team in the NFC: The Lions are 7-1 for the first time since 1956, and have scored 32 touchdowns, which is second in the NFL.

Goff is the most accurate quarterback in the NFL with his 74.9 completion percentage, and has the second-best passer rating (115.0). But his 58.7 QBR ranks 14^th.

1. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, stock up

Jackson again finds himself in the No. 1 spot in our MVP rankings after his performance Sunday, throwing for 280 yards and three touchdowns with a perfect passer rating in Baltimore’s 41-10 win over the Denver Broncos.

It was the fourth time in Jackson’s career he produced a 158.3 passer rating. He’s done that more times than Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner and Ben Roethlisberger in the Super Bowl era.

Jackson has the best passer rating (120.7) and QBR (77.3) in the NFL. He’s second in the NFL with 20 touchdown passes. And the Ravens lead the NFL with 34 touchdowns this season.

The Ravens may be 6-3, but the MV3 chants are loud in Baltimore in hopes of Jackson’s third NFL MVP.

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